Commercial Strategy & Intelligence
The problem is not imperfect data. It is committing real money to a decision somebody will ask you to justify. Commercial strategy for teams and business owners, built on a clear read of the market, competitors and pricing.
Discuss a BriefWhere to compete, what to charge, whether to launch, how to answer a competitor. These decisions cost real money, and they are usually made with partial data, an internal view nobody has tested, and a deadline.
The analysis that does exist rarely becomes a recommendation. It sits in a deck, the decision is made on instinct anyway, and nobody can explain afterwards why that option was chosen.
Each one is avoidable, and each one costs less to fix before the money is committed than after.
Size and share are measured against the wrong boundary, so growth looks easy or impossible for reasons that have nothing to do with the opportunity.
Prices follow cost-plus or the nearest competitor, without testing what a change would do to volume and margin, or what customers would actually accept.
Their moves are noticed after they happen. Pricing, distribution and launches usually signal intent well before that.
Plenty of numbers, no clear answer on where to compete, what to charge or how to position, so the decision defaults to instinct.
The Work
Strand One
Market, competitors and share
A clear read of the market from the sources that already exist, including where published data is thin or inconsistent.
Strand Two
Options and scenarios
Pricing options modelled for their effect on volume, revenue and margin, including excise and regulatory scenarios where they apply.
Strand Three
Where to compete, how to win
The intelligence and the pricing turned into a recommendation leadership, a board or a business owner can act on.
Anyone can produce an estimate or an opinion. What a board, an investor or a business partner asks is how you got there, and whether the same reasoning would still hold next year.
So every assumption is stated with the range it carries, every route to an estimate is shown, and the recommendation is written so your own team can follow it and revisit it.
This is decision support for commercial choices that matter. It works best when there is a real decision on the table.
Producing a market number is not difficult. Producing one a business will plan against, spend against, and defend when somebody senior pushes back is a different discipline, and it tends to be learned from the inside rather than from an agency seat.
Modupe spent five years there. He led market intelligence for a multinational FMCG business, and built the standardised method his team used to size markets when the usual sources were missing. That method is what the intelligence work runs on.
It earned its place by overturning something. It contradicted what the business had believed about its own market for years, and the strategy changed once the numbers were in. The pricing and excise scenarios behind a three-year pricing roadmap came out of the same work.
"Producing a number is easy. Producing one you can still defend a year later is the job."
Practical Detail
Work is scoped to the decision rather than sold as a fixed package. Most engagements open with a short conversation about what the decision is and what it is worth, which settles how much analysis is worth paying for.
On your data
We work from your internal sales, pricing and customer data alongside public and trade sources. Commercial data stays with you. Nothing you share is reused, referenced or shown elsewhere, and a non-disclosure agreement is signed before anything is exchanged.
Strands
Market intelligence, pricing scenarios and commercial strategy
For
Commercial teams in large organisations, and owners of businesses already trading
Deliverable
A written recommendation, the evidence and assumptions behind it, and the scenarios modelled
You provide
Internal sales, pricing and customer data, and access to the people making the decision
Fee
Priced on enquiry, based on the scope of the decision
What you are deciding, what it is worth, and what you already know. If a data subscription or an internal review would answer it faster, we will say so.